![]() ![]() The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. Yes, many shipping contracts are still locked in at higher rates, but it's quite telling that the relentless decline in freight prices has not yet been arrested. Prices fell further from there, essentially erasing nearly all pandemic gains. By August, the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles was cut in half from the peak, as shown in the chart below. That spike in demand weighed heavily on the ability to ship enough goods over in a timely fashion, thus pushing freight prices up exponentially. Given the near-universal lockdown of the global economy due to the pandemic, services were mostly unavailable, forcing consumers to shift most, if not all, of their buying power to goods. Back when the Fed was using the word "transitory" when describing the nature of inflation and how it arrived on our shores, shipping rates were obsessed over for multiple reasons. If there is a list of controversial inflation charts, this next one likely is at or near the top. In fairness, the NBER could come out tomorrow and announce a recession started early last year, but the data argue strongly against that. Conversely, in 19, we did in fact see two consecutive declines, but the economy wasn't declared as in a recession. The two exceptions are in 19, which are purposely circled and highlighted in red to show that, in those recessions, we didn't see two consecutive quarterly drops in GDP. The chart below shows every quarter in which U.S. Nonetheless, it's still helpful to visually put the two-quarter argument to bed. Notice that GDP shows up nowhere in the official definition. The committee assesses the health of four key indicators-industrial production, real personal income (ex-government transfers), payrolls, and business sales-to determine the state of the business cycle. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria-depth, diffusion, and duration-needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another." The definition is as follows: "…a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of recessions. recession is not defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. gross domestic product (GDP) declined for two consecutive quarters, which was confirmed in July's release of second-quarter GDP data. We found ourselves mired in it last year when U.S. Despite a brief trading hiatus, the index barely recovered any of its losses, closing down by more than 40% on the year.Īh, the recession definition debate. You can see that the value of the MOEX Index of Russian equities was essentially cut in half right as Russia invaded Ukraine. The real loser, however, was the Russian stock market. ![]() For all the hysteria over a "new era" of sky-high oil prices, Brent ended the year up by only 10%. Perhaps more interesting, though, was the decline thereafter. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Brent crude oil rose sharply after the invasion at the peak, it was up by nearly 70% year-to-date. As expected, that accelerated losses for stocks around the world and sent commodity prices soaring-the latter due to both countries' importance in supplying the world with oil and food. By the end of February, Russian troops descended on their neighbors to the east, sending the globe into utter shock. While the world was continuing to celebrate its emergence from the depths of the pandemic-roughly two years after things got ugly-Russia decided to launch an unprovoked and dramatic attack on Ukraine. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Investing.Bond Funds, Bond ETFs, and Preferred Securities.ADRs, Foreign Ordinaries & Canadian Stocks. ![]() ![]() Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ETFs.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Mutual Funds.Benefits and Considerations of Mutual Funds. ![]()
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